Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 6.759707 7.411481 8.116355 8.938326 9.874328 10.911471 12.153796
2026-02-08 5.773225 6.619212 7.590867 8.799561 10.277053 12.043074 14.342351
2026-02-15 5.143830 6.073458 7.184837 8.629801 10.486406 12.830936 16.080638
2026-02-22 4.731635 5.719816 6.940108 8.585545 10.790397 13.709810 17.987430
2026-03-01 4.308030 5.302764 6.562361 8.310159 10.732191 14.065620 19.181998
2026-03-08 3.910781 4.883236 6.139490 7.923420 10.464416 14.075868 19.841723
2026-03-15 3.660171 4.634699 5.918597 7.784114 10.515777 14.527730 21.200838
2026-03-22 3.699112 4.771694 6.222283 8.396403 11.702925 16.786812 25.752602
2026-03-29 3.593849 4.701235 6.228983 8.574033 12.247665 18.105678 28.941806
2026-04-05 3.390698 4.480341 6.005370 8.387351 12.201256 18.451220 30.441482
2026-04-12 3.291426 4.400189 5.978164 8.493756 12.627445 19.627646 33.670941
2026-04-19 3.137415 4.231936 5.809817 8.365477 12.651269 20.100879 35.596012
2026-04-26 2.996482 4.080174 5.663918 8.272938 12.745271 20.743846 38.063144
2026-05-03 2.858895 3.926604 5.506682 8.150833 12.777274 21.277567 40.409839
2026-05-10 2.725303 3.772037 5.338535 7.997252 12.736588 21.662622 42.493232
2026-05-17 2.628388 3.668095 5.242989 7.957247 12.895193 22.453856 45.689102
2026-05-24 2.492095 3.497578 5.033285 7.708111 12.643666 22.383307 46.756662
2026-05-31 2.342901 3.301336 4.773791 7.357789 12.174244 21.811527 46.444972
2026-06-07 2.250736 3.190410 4.646749 7.231469 12.123476 22.120668 48.521744
2026-06-14 2.302666 3.307447 4.895415 7.786162 13.450807 25.604773 60.278700
2026-06-21 2.273338 3.293236 4.925602 7.946837 14.004901 27.436728 67.866662
2026-06-28 2.184496 3.179377 4.782835 7.777970 13.861388 27.602054 70.259164
2026-07-05 2.148394 3.149832 4.781619 7.874236 14.285404 29.204957 77.925397